Category: Foresights

Initial economic analyses from Türkiye and beyond are based on simply two foundation:

1- Basic Comparison with the 1999 Izmit Earthquake & Reconstruction

2- Probable Decline in Production Capacity & Financial Burden caused by Funding Need

Some Turkish economists and easy-peasy viewers see the historic earthquake as something experienced before. That must be why they look very calm and well-prepared with their high standard scientific self-esteem. However, their overly dignified analyses could not prove beyond a quality of “if 10x cause 10 in 1999, in 2023 10x cause about 10.”

Thanks to each.

JP Morgan’s Initial Analysis on the possible cost is: $25 Billion or 2.5% of GDP; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD): Potential economic impact could result in a loss up to: 1% of GDP (Reasonable Estimate born of fair Plus-Minus calculation); Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation: Cost is up to $84 Billion or 10% of her GDP; IMF Executive Mohieldin: Turkey has proven resilient. Very unlikely to impact Turkey’s GDP to the same level as the 99 Izmit Quake; World Bank’s estimate is %34 billion damage equivalent to 4% of Turkey’s 2021 GDP, which means we think it will be about %3.2 of her 2023 estimated GDP.

Will it be 1%, 2.5%, 3.2%, or 10%?

Many thanks to each.

What MAZ Corporate simply tells us about the impact?

The earthquake’s probable effect on the Turkish economy has not yet been studied in terms. Although it is absolute that the cost of the earthquake will affect payments and borrowings, we are unclear on what Turkish people will face in the short-middle-long terms.

Time is naturally needed to see the consequences in: Production Capacity – Production Costs (loss), Government Spending (loss), Cost of Reconstruction (loss in the short term, relative gain in middle-long terms), Effect on External Debt (loss), Already Bitter Inflation (loss)

Do we have a rational say without a need for time?

Economic problems of Turkey that have been going on since 2014 had turned into desperation with the Corona Crisis. Now with the tragic earthquake, the possibility of Turkey falling into deep helplessness is increasing.

To me, it is very likely in all terms that The Cost of Earthquake will force Türkiye to take a step back in many areas, although she does not seem to be compromising in her relations with the West, which she has been trying to repair silently and proudly since the Corona.

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci, February 26, 2023, Istanbul

Swaying PEK in the Wind of Global Power Competition

Although each actor forces herself to become a dominating subject of the Near/Middle East and Eurasia/Caucasia coordinates, natural-environmental realities of the global and regional power competition define the boundaries of subjective behavior. All of them are going through very interesting sways between “existential threats” and “rational regional ambitions.”

Let’s take a look at Putin’s latest sway: His political approach towards Ukraine now looks perfectly transformed from “Celebration of Annexation” to “Silent Backlashing” from the occupied lands of Ukraine with about 100,000 losses. (Military-Political)

Erdogan’s over-elastic sway, on the other hand: His political stance now seems to be transformed from a “Morsianic Islamism” to “Sisianic Pharaohism” due to economic desperation. (Political-Ideological)

Khamenei’s tragicomic sway has been transformed: from “Religious Smiles” to “Abolition of Morality Police” in the midst of a long-lasting unrest. (Pol-Ideological)

In addition to military, political, and ideological losses, they all are and will be losing economically, more or less, and without any single doubt. MAZ Foresight predicted these results (sways and transformations) in his 2021 Report and detailed them throughout 2022.

2023 is no surprise. PEK will keep losing in all military, economic, political, and ideological means. MAZ Foresights absolutely predict that each will lose with her special losing function (e.g.: military+economy, or political+economic, less of the economy, more of the military and so on.) 2023 MAZ Foresights will come up with his perfect approaches clearing these functions.

My criticism of the global agenda of power competitions, by the way: Daily, Weekly, or Monthly reporting or foresighting might be valuable but with too many vulnerabilities resulting in inaccurate analyses and drifting predictions. However, the quality and the quantity of MAZ Foresights now is at the global level and undoubtedly proved successful. Moreover, now documented, MAZ with his very smart look has proven to minimize the analytical and interpretive drifts of international analysts.

Muhammet Ali Zurnacı

MAZ Foresights – Trial Release

December 8, 2022 – Istanbul

Misunderstanding Soft Power

Recent developments on the ground make it clear that Russia, faced with the need to narrow the front and increase the cost of using force in Ukraine, is attempting to conceal its challenging situation through annexation and forced, insincere celebrations. This ‘show must go on’ tactic is a poor choice for soft power projection, resulting in Russia paying a much higher price than initially planned. MAZ Foresights astutely predicted in September 2021 that Russia ‘would pay military and economic costs beyond her estimates and calculations.’

In July, I highlighted that the uncertain moves of Russian military decision-makers were directly tied to unprecedented developments on the ground. The relatively effective power projection appears burdened with tougher days ahead. Behaving beyond its power limits and engaging in prolonged multi-front warfare forced Russian calculations to withdraw, narrow the front, and reduce their targets. We now find ourselves at a critical stage in the power struggle of the Ukraine crisis. Can the Transatlantic Alliance demonstrate its ability to reshape the power dynamics whenever and however it desires, or will it risk losing prestige in the eyes of global power brokers?

Let’s examine the fundamental scenario. Regionalization initiatives on the Caucasus and Central Asia axes seem poised for new challenges. The Samarkand Meeting served as an attempt to assert ‘we exist,’ or perhaps a silent narrative of sadness. It resembled the meeting of Germany and France, where they exchanged desperate smiles just before the Ukraine crisis. The artificially strengthened image of a weakening Erdogan and China’s recent move in alignment with Russia already confirms this introverted passive alliance. Under these conditions, a regionalization climate as challenging as that of the Middle East appears to be emerging for the entire Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Russia may find it problematic to raise its hand, and lowering it poses a different set of challenges. The annexation of Ukraine, while appearing as a military gain, will push Russia further into multifaceted desperation and maneuvering areas.

The premature celebration of annexation with open mouths seems more irritating than sympathetic amid war. Displays of strength are employed only by those in need, and advising Russia’s leader to opt for such a cognitively negative show is a misunderstanding of soft power. Life is often simpler than we think, and in this case, it’s a misinterpretation of the essence of Soft Power.

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci

MAZ Articles

Trial Release

October 3, 2022

Impressing the sphere of influence in between 

                                “Escalate to de-escalate” and “Escalate to escalate”

Despite downsizing the ultimate target, the relatively radicalizing behavior of the Russian military is now confirming the expectations of MAZ Foresights appeared last week:

“-Growing need for shows.

-Producing fear”

Trying to impress the ground and sending subliminal messages to the whole Eastern Europe

by attacking power grids in Kyiv is now realized, and this was clearly foresighted

in MAZ 2021 Report.

“-Power Grids of Kyiv will be targeted.

-The whole Baltics and Eastern Europe will be influenced this way.”

The coming days will be going through an Asymmetrical Test. While Russia will be trying to infiltrate the power centers, Ukraine will be calculating the best option to deter. More than drone operations, hardening asymmetries are very likely to escalate the clashes to the use of all types and ranges of missiles except nuclear.

Russia’s determining role in escalation does not seem like it is going to get out of control, for she knows that if she presses the red button, the whole world will come together for raining terror upon Moscow. In my view, Russian decision-makers try to balance the ground before the decisive occupation of influenced areas with her conscriptions. In other words, balancing before containment. We are passing through a psychologically negative interlude. What we see now is not an “escalate to de-escalate” or an “escalate to escalate” but a controlled escalation to fear.

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci

MAZ Articles

Trial Release

October 18, 2022

In the time of soaring prices and roaring images

MUHAMMET ALİ ZURNACI

            Eurasia, Near East and Asia                      Celebrating, Ping ponging and Smiling…

            Conscription, Devaluation, Turmoil..        Roaring, cheering, relaxing…

            Gas, Tourism and Oil..                               Pretending, forcing, forgetting..

            Sanction, Sanction, Sanction..                   Tanks, Drone and Nuclear

            Why do they play the soil?                         Why do they keep laughing?

One would not call the poem above a masterpiece from the 21st century classics and the poet Sir Aly The Piper, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that the PEK has a growing need for shows and lyrics worse than mine. Although gaming in the right and amateur techniques, they are losing power in all economic, political, and ideological grounds except the military. Shows do not look effective enough. Contents are unsuccessful. Images of alliance are far from reality. People feel absolutely unhappy and insecure in their own lands.

From celebrating Putin to ping-ponging Erdogan and smiling Khamenei, PEK confirms that there must be a great amount of psychological deficit in their policy-making. This hidden reality shows us that they need support inside and outside, playing “everything is great.” Although they are accustomed to confronting economic operations, the harsher carrots and sticks on the way are likely to force their shoulders more than ever before. The more they become needy, the more power brokers see the PEK as weakening.

Economic costs of the military agenda are likely to keep slowing their ambitious moves. That is why I am not struggling to comprehend the political shows but their efficacy. One should sometimes twist herself to understand “think positive, be positive” attitudes of weakening leaders. We never know if quantum physics works for psychological wellness in a tragedy, but we are well aware that Cognitive Science does.

Will they be able to shoulder the costs and move on? Or will they fall from power? We don’t know if they are on the brink of a big bye, but we can point out they will be remembered by the outsiders as challenging leaders with limited powers and by the insiders and their official history as limited heroes. According to my quantum physics and strong feelings, things are now on the collision course for all. Let me say the first historic bye to PEK:

Bye bye PEK

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci/Istanbul

MAZ Articles

Trial Release

October 14, 2022

  MUHAMMET ALİ ZURNACI

In the midst of Ukraine Crisis 2.0, Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken tweeted: ‘Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.’ A week earlier, he had underscored the US position on Russian aggression beyond Ukraine, emphasizing international principles crucial for peace and security: ‘These principles transcend Ukraine. They transcend Europe.’ This triggered a thought in my mind: ‘And so, Nothing about Europe without Europe.’

The day after the ‘Nothing about Ukraine’ statement, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to foreign reporters, sending mixed signals to Anglo-American leaders: ‘They say tomorrow is war; this means panic. Ukrainians have learned to live with it since Moscow invaded in 2014. As the president of Ukraine, based here, I think I know the details deeper than any other president.’ This response hinted at a deep geo-economic stance, aiming to influence the international agenda.

While Zelensky’s attempt to calm against alarmism was fair for a president, his stance could transcend a mere peace effort. It might be interpreted as taking sides with Germany, France, and Russia against the US and the UK. Furthermore, Zelensky’s hardlines might position him as a power broker in an asymmetrical power competition. However, the role of Zelensky might not be a game-changer in the event of a further invasion of Ukraine, which is ultimately in the hands of Russian decision-makers. The maneuvering of Germany and France is also unlikely to play a significant role in prevention. Nevertheless, a prolonged decision-making process and extended maneuvering by European leaders may amplify the unintended consequences of a ‘highly possible’ conflict. In any case, ‘Nothing about Europe without Europe.

MAZ Articles

Trial Release

February 4, 2022

Between Regionalization and Clashing Interests

A terse review:

US-China competition and cooperation influence the globe, regardless of continent and region. The Near East and Eurasia are no exception. Both look locked in the uncalculated costs of their policy choices. The gas superpower Russia seems to have gotten carried away. Turkey is no longer pro-Muslim Brotherhood. Iran looks more passive-aggressive than confidently active. From Libya to Karabakh, Kherson to Idlib, regional and middle powers of the Near East and Eurasia have been facing erosive costs. It is getting clearly harder for all of them not to lose stakes and gain leverages at the same time. Although the strategic trap naturally and unnaturally installed on them is functioning fair enough, their possible hard moves don’t seem like they can be blocked.

My take is simple:

The point is and will be for some time more about the ‘consequences of the cost,’ but not the consequences of the conflict. Conflict is broad, while the cost is more concise.

It will not simply define the limits of behavior but will trigger the superpowers’ policy choices from hard to harder. Natural and regular power shifts might be possible in human species or in plants, but states are crazy, uncertain, chaotic, and consistent. Please do not force your brain cells here if you are not dedicated to grasping the IR nuances.

Real wisdom is stable: To know you never know.

Let me put it this way: Does cost define the consequence? Every cost is a consequence, but every consequence is not a cost. Imagine a romantic bar scene: You kissed a girl. You got the slap. People look at you. Shame appears. Complex emotions, slap, and so on are the consequences, but the cost is right after her boyfriend comes on stage. Who is the boyfriend here then?

To my point of view, The Boyfriend is and will be a total complex of military, economic, political, and ideological costs.