The geopolitical landscape involving Israel, Iran, the United States, Europe, Russia, and China is marked by intricate dynamics and strategic calculations. This analysis underscores the limitations and strategic considerations of these key players, revealing a complex interplay of leverage, support, and constraints in the context of the latest Middle Eastern conflict.
Introduction
Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on July 31st, is likely to add a new dimension to the regional escalation experienced in April. How the incident will develop: My prediction on July 31st aligns closely with the predictions of official analysts on August 2nd. This is proof that I am not bad at foresight analysis. As a person who is not mysterious, it is satisfying to reach a successful prediction from open sources.
Here is what I predicted on July 31st:
“Considering Kamala Harris’ recent shifting tone towards Gaza and Hamas’ tactical de-escalation, this situation now appears more complex than the previous U.S. efforts to persuade Iran not to escalate tensions through Oman. I’m expecting more than symbolic retaliation.“
According to news in open sources on August 2nd:
“According to American intelligence, Iran will retaliate for the killing of Haniyeh within a few days, and the retaliation will be more severe than Iran’s response to the Israeli consulate attack in April. When Iran retaliated against Israel in April, countries like Saudi Arabia and Jordan came to Israel’s aid and opened their airspace to the United States. This time, it is very difficult for Israel and the United States to get support from Arab countries.”
—— The underlying framework of my analysis is as follows:
“Israel is compelling Iran to fight and is leveraging its situation to secure support from America and the entire Western bloc due to the tactical contingencies it faces. Iran will also seek to turn this conflict into an opportunity.”
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Israel’s Pursuit of Support and the Limits of Its Influence
Israel, facing significant security threats and internal pressures, continues to seek extensive resources and support from its allies, particularly the United States and other Western nations. Despite its formidable military capabilities, Israel is not without constraints. The country’s actions are influenced by its need for international support and the reality of its own limitations.
The perception of Israel as having unlimited capacity is flawed. While it may appear to act recklessly at times, driven by immediate security concerns, its strategic choices are ultimately shaped by the resources and support it can secure from its allies. The debate over the extent of U.S. leverage over Israel should highlight that, while the U.S. provides substantial support, it also holds considerable influence over Israeli decisions.
The Constraints on Russia and China
Russia and China, while influential global powers, face their own strategic constraints that limit their involvement in the Middle East.
Russia’s Strategic Focus
Russia, while a significant player in the Middle East, is currently heavily focused on the situation in Ukraine. This ongoing conflict demands substantial resources and attention, limiting Russia’s ability to support or engage in additional extensive conflicts, such as those in the Middle East. Russia’s role is likely to be more about managing its current commitments rather than expanding its involvement.
Moreover, Russia’s approach to the Middle East is characterized by a complex and strategic engagement with various regional actors. For years, Russia has been working to enhance its influence in the region by courting not only Iran but also its regional adversaries, including Israel and Persian Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia. This strategy aims to undermine U.S. dominance and expand Moscow’s sway in the Middle East. Putin’s approach is more nuanced, balancing relationships with multiple regional players. This diplomatic balancing act allows Russia to maintain a foothold in the Middle East while avoiding direct confrontation with key actors like Israel.
The multi-faceted nature of Russia’s strategy means that Iran faces significant limits in leveraging Russian support. Russia’s broader goals in the region and its complex relationships with other key players constrain its ability to fully align with Iran’s interests. This dynamic creates additional challenges for Iran as it navigates its regional ambitions and seeks to bolster its position amidst competing influences.
China’s Economic Priorities
China’s relationship with the Middle East is primarily economic, driven by trade, energy resources, and investments. As instability in the region threatens these economic interests, China is likely to avoid deep involvement in regional conflicts. Instead, China’s focus will remain on maintaining economic stability and safeguarding its investments, rather than committing to military support in the Middle East.
Implications for Regional Dynamics
The constraints faced by Russia and China suggest that their support for any escalating conflict in the Middle East will be limited. This restricted support impacts the balance of influence and assistance in the region, highlighting that primary sources of support for Iran and other regional actors are likely to come from various quarters within the Middle East, including non-state actors.
The strategic calculations of both Russia and China involve careful consideration of their current commitments and the potential impact of deeper involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. Their focus remains on managing their existing interests and avoiding scenarios that could jeopardize their strategic positions.
The Role of Asymmetric Struggles
Therefore, an analysis that fails to consider the engagements and tactical and strategic calculations of superpowers—such as the United States, China, and Europe—as well as regional powers like Russia, and middle powers such as Turkey, Iran, Israel and Egypt, will not provide a comprehensive or explanatory framework. Additionally, the asymmetric struggles faced by regional countries and power groups, including non-state actors, further complicate the landscape and necessitate a nuanced understanding of each actor’s motivations and constraints.
Predictions for the Future
In the face of ongoing tensions, it is likely that there will be limited but harsh retaliation in response to provocations. Israel, in particular, may seek to extract significant concessions from its American and European allies through back-door diplomacy to resolve the Gaza stalemate. Such maneuvers would aim to secure more substantial support and leverage in its ongoing conflicts and security challenges.
On the other hand, we will observe how Iran, which has been relatively instrumentalized in this particular power struggle, attempts to turn these conflicts into an opportunity. The alternative scenario would involve a global conflict resulting in millions of deaths, regime changes in Iran, and a bloodbath in the Middle East, which seems unlikely.
Conclusion
The interplay of support, constraints, and strategic interests among Israel, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran underscores the complexity of international relations in the Middle East. While Israel continues to seek extensive, though still limited, support from its allies, and Iran looks to turn challenges into opportunities, the constraints faced by Russia and China highlight the difficulties of navigating a region marked by conflict and shifting alliances. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating future developments and managing the delicate balance of power in this strategically significant region.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı, August 2, 2024, Istanbul