Is Putin in a Crises of Decision-Making?

The latest crisis orchestrated by Wagner chief Prigozhin has deepened the questions regarding whether Russia is heading towards a political crisis stemming from an impasse in decision-making.

From the very beginning I had scenarios on this unexpected issue:

1. I tweeted sarcastically: ‘Professor Freedman, I interpret these films as a Moscowwood cinema or as a master’s course: Mgmt 504: Managing the Discontent Among Diversified Fighters; Chapter 11: The Distracting Effect of Sensationalized Agenda. Do you think I could pursue a Ph.D. based on these analyses?’
2. My first impression was that what is going on in Moscow at this very moment may be preparations for a major purge. A preemptive political operation designed by Putin. Laying the groundwork for the purge of Anti-Putin power brokers.
3. While people around were drawing analogies and emphasizing 1917, my focus was on 1937.
4. I found Wagner’s timing to be inappropriate for a coup, which makes me think otherwise. It raises the possibility of staging a coup d’etat on Wagner and using it as an opportunity to purge Anti-Putin power brokers.
5. I had mentioned that the increasing crimes committed by Wagner could be utilized to set the stage for a significant purge of anti-Putin power brokers.
6. Russia’s ‘Inaction’ and ‘loss of control’ appear unnatural in the midst of events, if not orchestrated. That is why I believe the power center allows Wagner’s crimes to escalate, intending to utilize them as a foundation for a comprehensive purge of anti-Putin power brokers.
7. To me, the essence of the crisis can be summarized as follows: what temporarily weakened Putin was intended to ultimately strengthen him or extend his political longevity.

Here are the simplest possible scenarios for the decision-making mechanism of Russia thereafter.

Scenarios:

1. Changes in MoD + Elimination of Prigozhin
2. Stable MoD + Elimination of Prigozhin
3. Changes in MoD + Dealing with Prigozhin
4. Stable MoD + Moving Prigozhin far away.
5. Same MoD + Same Prigozhin.

According to the MAZ Corporate evaluation, the order of 5-3-1 will occur in the short, medium, and long terms.

Wish you all a wonderful summer

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci, 25 June, 2023, Istanbul