Prescribed Analyses
A potential Taiwan intervention is driven by three main economic goals: downsizing the Chinese economy, reducing production costs by shifting inexpensive production to even lower-cost alternatives, and strategically transferring the cost of trade imbalances to China. The military consequences involve a grand strategy with maritime leverage for long-term gain, psychological superiority across the region, posing a long-term threat to Japan, and testing the military capabilities of China and the U.S.
Indeed, the economic war persists:
- The U.S. affects everyone, and the EU imposes consequences on those it may harm.
- Measures include embargoes, arms sales, and compelling regional and middle powers to engage in diplomacy and elections.
- Threat perception and defense spending rise in parallel, leading to economic sacrifices and altered trade volumes for the advantaged.
Increasingly pressured economies pose not only economic risks but also military instability globally.
MAZ Vision terms this approach the “strategy of loading the cost on the other side.”
Trending…
All of our Ukraine 2021 predictions have come true.
Three MAZ foresights hit the mark in August:
- Russian assassinations persist, likely to continue throughout Eastern Europe and inside Russia, as predicted in mid-2021.
- Turkey is slowing and delaying its hard moves, engaging in diplomatic maneuvers in Syria, and facing challenges with Erdogan’s economic approaches, as forecasted in our latest analysis.
- Turkey struggles to balance relations with Russia and its Transatlantic allies, as anticipated months ago.
Indeed, Turkey is neither adopting an anti-imperialist stance nor demonstrating the hard reflexes of a more independent country. It is the Transatlantic decision-making family that is pushing Turkey into the compulsive arms of Russia. NATO allies force Turkey to live under a perforated Russian umbrella. The global or regional agenda isn’t paying for exaggerated articles analyzing a relatively small drone company and its purported game-changing role, valued at less than 50 million dollars. Instead, it might be the urgently needed 3 billion euros from the FRID Funds that the Turkish economy requires. Hard and sad, but true.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
MAZ Visions
Trial Release
August 26, 2022