Early Celebration: Russia

Misunderstanding Soft Power

Recent developments on the ground make it clear that Russia, faced with the need to narrow the front and increase the cost of using force in Ukraine, is attempting to conceal its challenging situation through annexation and forced, insincere celebrations. This ‘show must go on’ tactic is a poor choice for soft power projection, resulting in Russia paying a much higher price than initially planned. MAZ Foresights astutely predicted in September 2021 that Russia ‘would pay military and economic costs beyond her estimates and calculations.’

In July, I highlighted that the uncertain moves of Russian military decision-makers were directly tied to unprecedented developments on the ground. The relatively effective power projection appears burdened with tougher days ahead. Behaving beyond its power limits and engaging in prolonged multi-front warfare forced Russian calculations to withdraw, narrow the front, and reduce their targets. We now find ourselves at a critical stage in the power struggle of the Ukraine crisis. Can the Transatlantic Alliance demonstrate its ability to reshape the power dynamics whenever and however it desires, or will it risk losing prestige in the eyes of global power brokers?

Let’s examine the fundamental scenario. Regionalization initiatives on the Caucasus and Central Asia axes seem poised for new challenges. The Samarkand Meeting served as an attempt to assert ‘we exist,’ or perhaps a silent narrative of sadness. It resembled the meeting of Germany and France, where they exchanged desperate smiles just before the Ukraine crisis. The artificially strengthened image of a weakening Erdogan and China’s recent move in alignment with Russia already confirms this introverted passive alliance. Under these conditions, a regionalization climate as challenging as that of the Middle East appears to be emerging for the entire Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Russia may find it problematic to raise its hand, and lowering it poses a different set of challenges. The annexation of Ukraine, while appearing as a military gain, will push Russia further into multifaceted desperation and maneuvering areas.

The premature celebration of annexation with open mouths seems more irritating than sympathetic amid war. Displays of strength are employed only by those in need, and advising Russia’s leader to opt for such a cognitively negative show is a misunderstanding of soft power. Life is often simpler than we think, and in this case, it’s a misinterpretation of the essence of Soft Power.

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci

MAZ Articles

Trial Release

October 3, 2022