Impressing the sphere of influence in between
“Escalate to de-escalate” and “Escalate to escalate”
Despite downsizing the ultimate target, the relatively radicalizing behavior of the Russian military is now confirming the expectations of MAZ Foresights appeared last week:
“-Growing need for shows.
-Producing fear”
Trying to impress the ground and sending subliminal messages to the whole Eastern Europe
by attacking power grids in Kyiv is now realized, and this was clearly foresighted
in MAZ 2021 Report.
“-Power Grids of Kyiv will be targeted.
-The whole Baltics and Eastern Europe will be influenced this way.”
The coming days will be going through an Asymmetrical Test. While Russia will be trying to infiltrate the power centers, Ukraine will be calculating the best option to deter. More than drone operations, hardening asymmetries are very likely to escalate the clashes to the use of all types and ranges of missiles except nuclear.
Russia’s determining role in escalation does not seem like it is going to get out of control, for she knows that if she presses the red button, the whole world will come together for raining terror upon Moscow. In my view, Russian decision-makers try to balance the ground before the decisive occupation of influenced areas with her conscriptions. In other words, balancing before containment. We are passing through a psychologically negative interlude. What we see now is not an “escalate to de-escalate” or an “escalate to escalate” but a controlled escalation to fear.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
October 18, 2022