At the very beginning of Ukraine Crisis 2.0, the attitude of Germany and France was defined as so blurred by the USA, UK, and many other European allies together with NATO. Russian aggression near and inside the border of Ukraine was almost taken for granted throughout the Berlin and Paris corridors. Then, questions appeared in my mind:
Questions
Why this calm? Is it this simple: to connect the blurred behavior to energy dependency?
What about shaking European security from the East? Loading the possible costs of supporting Ukraine on the other sides?
The first steps of long-term strategic decisions taken so deeply?
Isolated nation-states back to stage?
Darker time scenarios?
WW2 or WW1?
Middle Ages?
Adam and Eve and that dangerous tree?
Hunter-gatherer Sapiens?
Lonely Dinosaurs?
Big Bang?
No Time No Space?
…
Or
Is it just a very simple “Maneuvering Act” while other players in the game look interestingly very solicitous?
Possible Calculations
Germany and France may consider the scenarios below:
Scenario 1: The Anglo-American support for Ukraine did not make a big change in 2014 and will not be able to in 2022 too. So, calm down and watch the level of support. The capacity that can or cannot change the situation on the ground is definitive.
Scenario 2: 2014 is not 2022. Structural changes may appear on the strategic map. Prevention is vital because this time it is existential. So, again, calm down and watch the level of support. The capacity that can or cannot change the situation on the ground is definitive.
Scenario 3: The cost of sharing the responsibility of saving Europe is added by the cost of energy prices. Losing plus losing. So the less we share the Anglo-American wind in Ukraine, the less we deteriorate the relations with Russia. So, let us show Russia that we don’t have an intention of escalating the crisis in Ukraine even if we have existential responsibilities in NATO and the EU.
Scenario 4: Anglo-American decisiveness can load an unprecedented cost and responsibility on us in the middle and long term. This may be read as an attrition of our power which may injure the trust-building elements in Transatlantic relations. So, let us show America that we have serious suspicions and questions in our minds. Our responsibilities in Africa, East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe force us to pay more than our calculations. Would you support me in my favor in the transatlantic economy throughout these hard covid times please? Let us talk.
Scenario X: It is just an artificial escalation to sell more weapons and guns all over the world. It’s all for the sake of companies. Man, believe me, 5 Big Families are ruling the whole world and they are very very bad people. So, No. The 5 Big Families are not ruling the entire world. This is not true.
Euro-Atlantic Tension and Two Cards
It is becoming more evident that the international agenda faces a new phase of Euro-Atlantic Tension
Another big question below:
1- Does Russia determine the behaviors of Germany and France directly or indirectly using geoeconomic weapons?
2- Or the opposite: Can Germany and France influence the Russian behavior towards Ukraine behind the stage?
3- Or there is no determination but convergence and compatibility of interests over Ukraine?
Scenario 6: If there is a warmonger Anglo-American alliance and it is forcing Germany and France to pay the price through nation-states, the EU, and NATO. Can France and Germany prevent possible further Russian intervention? If there is such a silent scenario, we could easily expect to live and discuss the same problems and behavioral patterns in each crisis of Eastern Europe in the future. If Russia reads the silent tension among EuroAtlantic partners, it shouldn’t hesitate to further invade Ukraine. Conjunctural reality would be available for Russia to enlarge its sphere of influence. The rest is the calculation of costs. Yet, France and Germany use double cards, One is ‘We have to act with our NATO allies; Russia should know that it will face heavy costs.’ card. The other is ‘No guns to Ukraine.. Some bans to Ukraine…’ card.
Playing with these two for weeks, it seems there could not be a foreseeable and apparent gain for Germany and France. From the very beginning, it has been hard to gain leverage. In fact, Russia’s choice sets the conditions under which Germany and France’s capacity for sovereign behavior in the global power struggle is tested. Yet, Any reckless behavior of Russia can cause sudden behavioral shifts in Europe. In that case, we may watch Germany and France go back to the Anglo-American Decision-Making Family.”
Germany and France are not reluctant, cautious, or coy, in fact. It is just a maneuver policy that aims to gain some cards from the Anglo-American side while doing the best not to worsen relations with Russia. If my take is wishful thinking or overoptimism, we all have to be ready to talk about the institutional and military future of Europe. Nevertheless, the soft behaviors of Germany and France are likely to give way to an expected level of hardness in the very near future, and this ‘likelihood‘ will be determined by Russia’s risk-taking capability.
Greetings and Love
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı
25/01/2022 – İstanbul
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
January 25, 2022