Ukraine Crisis and the Possible Pattern of Russia’s Eastern Europe Policy
MUHAMMET ALI ZURNACI
Table of “I do not know what to do” has always been impossible between a great power and regional actors. Competition is mostly limited. Costs and risks are high enough in the given asymmetry despite narratives and never-ending takes of analysts. Yet it seems things are changing quite fast. Proxy war, hybrid warfare, and a new set of tools of indirect power competitions can change the nature of asymmetrical games easier and faster than we think. Multiple actors, multiple cards, and inconsistent moves may produce unintended consequences, or any actor can take advantage of unexpected developments on the chaotic ground.
Basically thinking, one’s analysis would differ based on the players in the game:
- Russia and Ukraine Two parties… Basic Intuitive Notion Asymmetry
- Russia and the EU Two parties… Complex Notion Asymmetry
- Russia and NATO Two parties… Complex Notion Asymmetry
None of these game setups is completely wrong or totally right.
We have complex asymmetries affecting different players on different levels.
It is simply a “Russia-Ukraine conflict” affecting Russia-NATO, Russia-the EU, and many other sub-functional relations quietly.
But let us collectively agree not to use the phrases “Global Russia, Great Power Russia, Russian Empire’s Sphere of Influence, Back To Soviet Power.” It is really inaccurate and grotesque. No scientific proof. It is nothing more than speculation or alarmism. It doesn’t meet the reality of the ground. It is power with just overbrave military moves with a very vulnerable economy and weak political projections.
If Russia were a great power, we would have almost 20 great powers over the globe. And this would be a GREAT WORLD. No.
Despite its asymmetric danger, serious-looking Lavrov does not impress me.
1/3 of Germany’s GDP… 1/15 of the USA’s GDP… etc.
Ok, What is your ultimate goal then?
Shrinking the target or drawing attention to a satisfactory extent by exaggerating the reality?
MAZ has no goal of producing Artificial Intelligence only but also Real Effective Solutions for the ground to his customers.
What sphere of influence?
- Military
- Economic
- Political
- Ideological
- Mafiatic?
January 12, 2022, Istanbul