Muhammet Ali Zurnacı, October 7, 2024, Istanbul
The Middle East is now testing the initial phases of a new conflict environment. What is broadly happening between Israel and the entire Middle East is neither ‘escalate to de-escalate’ nor simply ‘escalate to escalate.’ The pattern of its military behavior is unprecedented and requires a new concept to comprehend. Since October 7, 2023, amid long or intermittent silences, a conflict landscape has emerged where various tactical moves have been made, including bluffs, diplomacy, and intelligence games. I believe it is necessary to uncover a pattern in the composition of these moves.
Let me come up with a new theory:
Escalate to Oscillate
It differs significantly from the military concept of ‘dynamic maneuvering,’ where forces or policies are shifted fluidly across different fronts or areas, balancing aggression and retreat—similar to strategic repositioning or alternating tactical movements. Instead, I am introducing something new: ‘escalate to oscillate,’ a necessary rhythm that emerges after a series of intensifying escalations without resolution—almost as if conflict itself needs to find a new dynamic of balance. Previously, the strategy was to ‘escalate to de-escalate,’ then to ‘escalate to escalate’ without an endpoint. Now, rather than perpetually climbing, Israeli oscillation represents a way of maintaining movement, flexibly adjusting intensity as needed. Here, the actor escalates to sustain this particular oscillation.
‘Escalate to Oscillate’ is a ‘wartime belly dance’ kind of conflict—one that requires rhythm, movement, and constant adjustment rather than rigid, one-directional escalation. It’s about finding the dance within the tension, keeping things fluid while avoiding an uncontrollable spiral. There’s a lot of depth in this metaphor—balancing aggression with fluidity, control with adaptation.
In other words, my concept of conflict as a rhythmic, adaptive process carries deep resonance. It speaks to the need for balance, fluidity, and the skill to manage intensity without becoming trapped in an upward spiral. This is my ‘Wartime Belly Dance’ metaphor, which I believe is genius—capturing a sense of flow and grace, even amid chaos.
Regional War
Israel is not only escalating to oscillate but also spreading military crises regionally, as I foresaw months ago. New fronts in the conflict have emerged in Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen, heightening fears of a broader regional instability. Are things heading towards a regional war? I don’t think so. Saudi Prince Mohammad Bin Salman is maintaining absolute neutrality regarding Gaza. Iran is being provoked by Israel, but it doesn’t intend to escalate into a regional war. Syria and Iraq are already weakened, and none are eager for further conflict. Turkey’s Erdogan is embracing Egypt’s Sisi. Putin is calculating possible winter losses in Ukraine and praying for a Trump victory. Europe is increasingly unsettled by internal protests and the possibility of a Trump win. The U.S. elections are just weeks away, so the timeframe doesn’t seem convenient. The power balance of regional actors doesn’t support such a development. There must be something else behind these limited but sensational escalations. Let’s try to observe it:
Israel needs to resolve the Gaza standoff. Hamas is significantly weakened, but millions of Gaza residents haven’t left their homeland. Therefore, Israel needs second and third scenarios to find alternative solutions. Given the fact that ground wars are far more difficult than aerial warfare, Israeli decision-makers require constant and increasing support from the U.S. and European actors for military supplies and economic aid. To ensure this, in my view, Israel has pursued a ‘regionalizing strategy,’ spreading instability across a broader area.
That’s why I had the genius foresight to report it in July 2024.
Israel is escalating to oscillate. Its escalation moves have more leverage than disadvantages.
- Gaza Standoff (Alternating solutions for its primary objectives in Palestine)
- Political, Economic and Military Support (Pushing the international community to support its own interests)
- Deterrence (Regional, Sub-Regional)
- Military Gains (Testing its own capabilities and periphery)
- Legitimizing (Its war by dragging its adversaries into an armed conflict)
What to Expect
The Middle East is entering a period of oscillations. Israel will escalate, while Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas will retaliate in a limited but harsh manner. My expectations have remained stable since the beginning. Some have doubted the groups’ capabilities, while others have exaggerated the realistic views. Israel’s aerial power is significant, but land forces and asymmetric struggles in the Middle East represent another side of the story. The first phase will continue until Israel’s objectives in Gaza are realized, which ultimately means years of oscillating conflict.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı, October 7, 2024, Istanbul