Middle East Significance: The Middle East is not as critical in global power struggles as often portrayed. The region’s most defining country is Israel, which is currently engaged in aggressive actions in the Red Sea with Iranian proxies, impacting commodity prices. Major global or regional powers are either unwilling or unable to counter this. China is focused on diplomatic maneuvers, Russia remains quiet, and countries like Iran, Egypt, and Turkey are economically constrained and unlikely to assert significant influence for the next 50 years.
China’s Economic Projections: China’s mid-term economic projections suggest significant challenges, which are not widely reported. The implications go beyond what is commonly understood as trade wars, involving complex military scenarios, including nuclear. The issue of global debt is becoming a new form of leverage in international relations.
Consultancy Needs for Developing Countries: Business leaders in developing countries, including Turkey, need substantial consultancy services as their governments do not adequately support them. There is a need for serious risk analysis considering uncertainties in the Red Sea, instability in the Caucasus, and the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Superficial international meetings and reliance on artificial intelligence buzzwords are insufficient.
U.S. Elections and Global Power Shifts: The upcoming U.S. elections are seen not as a change in government but as a shift in the global eco-political landscape. This requires significant awareness and risk analysis at the executive level in countries like Turkey, including potential internal repercussions such as tax risks and capital flows.
Cyprus Issue and Regional Tensions: The Cyprus issue may escalate. If Israel does not receive the support it seeks in the Palestinian conflict, it may lead to the spread of military crises regionally. Iran might exploit this situation. One should offer consultancy services for risk analysis and decision-making processes to various regional stakeholders, including European decision-makers.
Recommendations for Developing Countries Including Turkey:
Investment Area Analysis: Businesses should critically assess their investment areas, with a particular focus on geographical strategy. This includes differentiating between selling goods in Africa versus setting up integrated facilities in regions like Eastern Europe or the Caucasus, which requires serious preliminary research and strategic expertise.
Sectoral Risk Mapping: Large conglomerates should invest in comprehensive risk mapping services, moving beyond superficial meetings and events. This involves detailed mapping of investment potentials.
Information and Analysis Integrity: Developing countries need accurate information and analysis to navigate geopolitical risks, avoiding misleading sources that distort reality.
Seeking Critique and Wisdom: It’s crucial to seek out those who provide genuine critique and wisdom, rather than being swayed by superficial or manipulative elements within the system.
Contact Information:
For further consultancy and risk analysis services, interested parties can contact Muhammet Ali Zurnacı at muhammetalizurnaci@gmail.com.
Wish you all a great summer 
– III’ Corporate
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı, July 25, 2024, Istanbul