As a scholarly, intellectual, and senior person (seniority is necessarily important) who has been working on power theory for more than a decade and intellectually engaging with it since childhood, I can easily say that Turkey is a middle power with very limited room for maneuver. It is struggling to increase its power resources for multifaceted reasons and is certainly not a regional power.
After years spent trying to define different types of powers in international relations, I would confidently call Turkey ‘the power in between,‘ or, in an ironic definition, ‘an asymmetric giant.‘
Here is why:
- NATO allies are indirectly pressuring it on its southern borders together with Russia.
- The EU has made it an indispensable house for millions of refugees.
- Russia is turning it into a gas hub, keeping it waiting in front of the Kremlin.
- BRICS could teach Turkey how to evade sanctions against Russia and China, which might further strain its relations with the West in the long run.
- Making America Great Again (MAGA) won’t be easy for Turkey for sure.
- Europe, particularly Germany, with which Turkey has significant economic ties, is likely to slow down in every area. This will impact Turkey’s already scientifically unhealthy growth.
- A cornered China may escalate its trade war, changing everything in geoeconomics.
- A cornered Russia might play the bad guy, affecting Turkey first, including potentially deadly missile scenarios.
- The newly emerging Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if not properly managed, could negatively affect Turkey’s relations with the West.
- In an era where economic contraction may be more efficient than growth, this will have compounded effects on middle powers like Turkey.
- Its chronic balancing act between Western democracies and Russia has brought more losses than gains.
- Turkey’s highly flexible foreign policy creates significant distrust among those it seeks to win over. The latest Gaza War highlighted this clearly.
So, Turkey’s elasticity doesn’t come from Erdogan’s ultra-genius thinking but rather from its forced nature of obligations. That is why Turkey is not a shining power, a rising commission agent, a sympathetic little mouse who is easily winning the hearts and minds, a ‘flexible power’ as a Turkish ambassador once put it, or an ‘asymmetric giant’ as I would call it. Instead, it is a ‘power in between,‘ being pushed around in every direction.
Emphasizing predominantly positive aspects of events distracts from reality, which undermines my main goal of presenting a hyper-realist view. Let us remain positive but without losing sight of the facts.
In the last 25 years, Turkey’s long-term losses have mathematically exceeded the gains of its medium and short-term policies. Although it tells great success stories to its own people, it has actually been standing still in relative terms for a very long period. I wrote about this fact in 2015. That’s why some people in Ankara continue to hate me. Despite their intended love for me, my 2015 critiques were very real. Whether it is 2025, 2045, 2075, or 3053, it is impossible to get ahead of scientific realities, even if flattering reports are printed from the UK. Turkey needs to improve the quality of its production relations with the world rather than deceiving its own people. This is related to “its human resources policy, which it has been handling very poorly for the past 300 years.“
The coming years will be harder for Turkey. Opportunities will shrink..
Erdogan’s domestic power grab has cost Turkey a lot and continues to do so. He has done to his own country what he himself once warned against: ‘He who does not take sides will be eliminated’ (‘taraf olmayan bertaraf olur’). Now, like all leaders whose power corrupts, he is playing games between East and West with a high potential of being eliminated himself. I am afraid that he will make Turkey lose, as he has been doing for the last 20 years, or he will prevent it from gaining more. He will ignore all relative and comparative assessments and continue to convince his own people because he cannot convince the world. Poorly calculated crossroad intuitions may end with a crucified Türkiye and its people making the sign of the cross upon him.
Have a beautiful summer.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı,
June, 12, 2024, Istanbul