Turkey finds itself at the crossroads of complex global, regional, and sub-regional competitions, where the escalation of these potential security risks of Turkey looms large, threatening to overshadow potential opportunities. This nuanced perspective emphasizes not only the presence of security risks but the potential for their intensification, adding a layer of complexity to the challenges faced by the nation. The escalation of these security risks of Turkey poses a significant challenge, potentially plunging the nation’s already strained economic structure into a vortex of heightened defense expenditures. This precarious situation has the potential to transform Turkey’s decision-making mechanism into a restrictive framework, shaping its desired position, interests, and benefits amidst the unfolding global and regional power competitions, extending beyond Syria to encompass the entire Eastern Mediterranean.
In the face of these challenges, Turkey, under Erdogan’s leadership, is undergoing a delicate balancing act. Despite Erdogan’s political profile, there is a notable effort to cultivate a more moderate relationship with NATO allies. Sustaining and strengthening this moderate approach is not just a diplomatic nicety; it is a fundamental factor that will significantly influence Turkey’s defense budget. Furthermore, it serves as a guiding principle directing the country towards adopting more peaceful policies in the broader regional context.
Conversely, the absence of a moderate approach could plunge Turkey into a scenario of intensified attrition, both militarily and economically, within its region. The delicate equilibrium between advantage and disadvantage is underscored by the reality of ‘Turkey despite Erdoğan,’ a realpolitik fact that has compelled Erdogan himself to moderate. The ongoing trend towards moderation should be viewed as an indispensable prerequisite for the prospects of improving the nation’s deteriorating economic conditions.
Despite Erdogan’s attempts to leverage Turkey’s geo-economic advantages and disadvantages to bolster his own political capital, the landscape remains dynamic. Changes in ownership structures can unfold swiftly, especially in countries like Turkey, compared to the more gradual transitions seen in developed nations. This reality introduces an additional layer of unpredictability into Turkey’s political and economic equations.
In conclusion, navigating Turkey’s geo-economic landscape amidst global challenges requires a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between the escalation of these potential security risks, diplomatic relationships, economic considerations, and the ever-evolving political dynamics. The ongoing trend of moderation in Turkey’s approach, despite the complexities presented by Erdogan’s leadership, becomes a linchpin for both regional stability and economic recovery. As Turkey seeks to find its footing amid global competitions, the ability to adapt to both changing and stable dynamics will be pivotal for shaping its future trajectory.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci, December 29, 2023, Istanbul