Photo Credit-Mahmud Hams, AFP
What happened and How?
1. Washington was manipulated very quickly and support for Israel was reinforced primarily based on emotional responses and reactions.
2. After risk calculations made by MAZ Corporate Risk Team
2.1. The risk of America being dragged into a multi-front war has emerged (political-military).
2.2. It became clear that the unconditional, banal, rude and naive support for Israel was having difficulty in gaining global moral support.
2.3 The problem of moral support and credibility caused the eroding American soft power to lose its credibility further.
3. The costs of the surprise consequences of a possible asymmetric struggle to the USA and Europe
Dramatic Domino Effect Scenario:
1. The political capital, which uses its powers of influence to draw American decision-makers into a huge war in the Middle East, may, when the day comes, leave America alone and turn to cooperation with China and Russia. When the possibility of Turkey leaving Nato is added to such a scenario, what remains is for Europe to terminate the Transatlantic alliance. Therefore, the possibility of power brokers manipulating the American decision-making family to accelerate or pave the way for global power shifts should not be considered a simple conspiracy.
MAZ Corporate Senior Analyst, M. Ali Zurnacı underlines that; “The Capital has no ideas; the interests of the capital change place and direction faster than the interests of states.”
Inviting America to act more balanced does not mean showing a stick under the hammer, but calling for common sense for the benefit of everyone. While American navy elements contribute to regional security and stability, they also pave the way for increased risks in the Middle East due to unconditional and insufficiently balanced support for Israel.
Propaganda and Information Warfare
As can be clearly understood when considered in terms of Propaganda and Information Warfare, after the Hamas-Israel conflict, the belief in neutrality and subjectivity has decreased to the point of extinction on a global scale, especially in Continental Europe and America itself. Policies that lead to a tremendous loss of credibility should be noted as destructive of trust in the international order, law and justice in the eyes of the public, as well as trust in interstate terms.
This situation increases the rising anti-Americanism both in western democracies and in non-NATO countries beyond expectations. When the counter-perception produced by rudeness grows, some emotional moves that will develop beyond behavioral capacities may produce an asymmetric chaos. This risk is a risk of high severity.
If someone is working against America within America and can persuade “the establishment”, this becomes a problem that the United States must solve alone.
Risk and Stress Test
A regional war triggered in Gaza may bring about sudden changes in Europe’s attitude towards Ukraine. Domino risk should not be underestimated by us analysts for any geography. Efforts to balance power relations between regional actors will be more beneficial than exaggerating intra-regional stress tests.
A More Balanced Approach
Biden’s speech last night is a manifestation of relative balancing.
- The emphasis on support for the Palestinians is recognizing the need to balance.
- The emphasis on Islamophobia stems from the correct reading of the global reaction,
- “Putin and Hamas” statement stems from the realization that Russia will benefit from a conflict that spreads to the region.
- The emphasis on “American” values comes from the understanding that the Israeli alliance and the influence of the Israel lobby have produced a perception that puts “America” ahead of itself.
It is obvious that it is a highly thought-out, balanced statement of the American Foreign Policy Establishment.
Recommendations to Washington:
- Any policy developed without proper balance and thoughtfulness is likely to backfire as a tangled web of larger issues that need resolution. “Balanced approach” is essential.
- Recognize with capital letters in the ledger that any triggered war, due to the serious risks of a domino effect, will not remain confined to the Middle East but could rapidly lead to the unraveling of the entire “Transatlantic Alliance,” starting from Ukraine.
- The declining soft power of the United States on a global scale is exacerbated by agitated and reactionary behaviors in this matter. A policy of balanced rhetoric and action is not only suitable for regional stability but also serves America’s own interests.
- If the United States increases its tendency to act not as a global power but as a limited regional actor that “goes beyond alliance boundaries” and emotionally takes sides on every issue, it will not only expedite the Post-American Middle East process but also unpredictably raise the risk of global conflict.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci,
October 20, 2023, Istanbul