Turkey’s Election 2023

The Turkish Political Orchestra seems adjusted to “under control” long before the Public Polls.

 Muhammet Ali Zurnacı / Senior Analyst @ III’ Corporate

“Holistically looking, Turkey’s Electoral Orchestration, or let’s say Electoral Sphere of Influence, seems strictly closed to negative foreign interventions and orchestrated as balanced as possible in accordance with her interests,” demystifies Muhammet Ali Zurnaci, senior analyst at MAZ Corporate.

“Her perception of an existential threat from the south; relative isolation stemming from her short-sighted policy choices, and a deteriorating economy burdened by the historic earthquake, must be forcing her decision-making mechanism to stay tougher than ever. The fact that she had to take a step back from many of the policies she developed regarding her environment, and that she made diplomatic attempts not to be alone, shows the gravity of the situation. While this is the case, it would be normal to expect her to behave like an ‘introvert’ for a while longer, at least politically.”

Latest state of being regarding her External Existential Environment

• Growing security risks 
• North (Black Sea-Ukraine War and its negative repercussions), 
• South (Syria- heavily armed Ypg keeps causing a perception of existential threat+new possibilities of further Syrian refugees), 
• East (Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and its indirect effects + illegal immigrants) 
• West (Despite temporal warming, Aegean-Mediterranean waters produce troubling counter alliances against Turkey)

Orchestrated Internal Electoral Environment:

Neither the Opposition, nor does Erdogan seem totally okay with their western allies. So the relations with the west will likely stay turbulent, same as in the past in any scenario. This will no doubt affect both: 

• The political capital of Türkiye in western roundtables.
• International capital flows towards Türkiye.

According to MAZ Corporate Observation, Neither the US nor the EU + the UK is completely happy with any scenario.  It is crucial for foreign capital to read the ”possible results” of  the elections and the “probable atmosphere after.”

Election Scenarios:

1. Erdogan (The Ruling)  in the first round.
2. Kılıçdaroğlu (The Opposition) in the first round.
3. Kılıcdaroğlu in the second round.
4. Erdogan in the second Round.

Almost all of the Public Polls and their projected trends show that the 3. scenario is the most likely. Neither Kılıçdaroğlu nor Erdoğan could have 50% +1 of total votes in the first round of election according to this probability. Here the role of CHP has been quite determinative. While working with HDP is CHP’s success; being unable to work with former CHP member and competitor of Kılıçdaroğlu, now the founder of MEMLEKET, Muharrem Ince is CHP’s failure. MAZ Corporate simply calculates the acquired votes of CHP itself as  “HDP(10)-Muharrem(1) = ˜9% Real Gain to the new President.”

Signaling and Relatively Game Changing Determinants:

1. Muharrem İnce Here the most unobserved point determining Ince’s votes according to MAZ Co, is that Muharrem Ince’s hatred of Kılıçdaroğlu is exploited by Erdoğan. Sensations Ince has produced have little ups and downs with a classical excitement element of Turkish Politics “Bak Açıklarım, Bildiklerimi Açıklarım Bak!” which means he may leak some info of corruption. 

2. Mafia Leaks Watched by millions of people, the videos of famous Turkish mafia leader Sedat Peker could produce a great amount of sensation among voters. Stemming from his threatening hatred of current Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu, further videos or social media shares were banned by the UAE where he is now sheltering. Despite political obstacles, possible leaks that he promised to publish are expected to affect the voting atmosphere. On the other hand, he is not alone anymore. The other mafia man Muhammet Yakut is competing with Sedat Peker by sharing some sensational videos. Effect of this agenda setting is no different than “Açıklarım Bak, Bildiklerimi Açıklarım.” Leaking Games and they just meet the excitement needs of Turkish voters. 

Here MAZ Corporate Observation underlines that 

1. Turkey’s Youth is bored of Erdogan (18-25). AKP may have far less from the youth than the Polls expect. 
2. Housewifes who are supporting Erdogan are now tired of the burning market prices.
3. Societal Fear stemming from AKP-produced enormous politics of oppression has repercussions. MAZ Corporate’s expectation here is Freudian:  All the oppressed people (including AKP supporters) will return. The classical factor of social psychology may guarantee the Opposition’s win in the first round.
4. Inflation and Cost of living burn the votes of AKP.

Determinants above will highly likely to boost the Opposition votes beyond the expectations of Public Polls. Moreover:

5. Muharrem Ince may get far less than expected from the youth. His special dancing style popular among teenagers may not guarantee a change in voting behavior.
6. Mafia Leaks may not produce the expected influence over votes but add just a little more excitement.

• “ 2023 Elections may show Turkey and her environment that the + Power of Populism can not exceed -Power of corruption, societal tiredness and boredom. So the Negative Power of Corruption, Poverty, Fear and Boredom will exceed the Positive Power of Populism. So, It would not surprise me if Kılıçdaroğlu won over 60% of the vote in the first round. Not only Turkey, but also Russia and Iran should have lessons to be learned from 2023 Turkish Elections.” underlined Muhammet Ali Zurnaci with a golden line.

Problems of High Politics

Here the problem is that no one can predict how the “power shift” together with the “share of power” among government partners will be realized. How long will it take? What may be the uncalculated risks? Such an unpredictable image of Türkiye.  Here, Riskers risk. Waiters wait and Haters hate.

Because Turkey’s economic structure requires a great amount of Foreign Investment, it is necessary to analyze the possible scenarios thought at the western roundtables. People in Washington, London and European Centers may accept to work with “the bad but negotiable guy” more profitable than with “the unknown scenarios” That is why people in the west are having trouble understanding why there are a growing number of people who do not oppose Erdogan but rather focusing on economic recovery. They naturally try to see why the Opposition is not supported as much as in the past elections..

Opposition’s Possible Big Negatives for the Western Investors

• Blur image of how to change the Presidential System to Parliamentary one & its bureaucratic risks for the investor. 
• Possible Risks stemming from the Tender Law

• Policy choice towards Syrian Refugees 
• The Risk of Possible Expropriations

Erdogan’s Possible Big Positives for the Western Investor

• He has been trying to restore his tense relations with the western investors through backdoor diplomacy for more than 2 years.
• He is ok with keeping the same policy of Syrian Refugees.
• Despite high volume speeches, he is ok with Liberal steps regarding foreign investment.
• In 20 years of his Rule he has been negotiable with both  the US and the EU anyway.
• He doesn’t shock the investors with sudden military agendas. 

The Possible Observation of the Foreign Capital

• MAZ Corporate produces two more artificial scenarios. 
• One is “Whoever Comes” the other is “Chaotic parliament”

• Most of the international capital does not seem to have totally bought or priced any of the scenarios.
• Capital behavior looks focused on “Whoever comes” in the short term.
• They must be striving for a predictable agenda on issues such as structural reforms, credits, interest rate, hot money, gold, borrowings, growing risks in the Banking Sector.
• Turkey needs money, foreign investment, more than ideas immediately. This is the first condition for not shrinking in growth.
• In addition to the “Whoever Comes” scenario, the “Risks of the Nation Alliance” should be calculated. Ankara corridors and gossip may not guarantee trusted investments.
• Real risk and opportunity for the investor is the “Chaotic Parliament” scenario after the elections. In such a scenario a time is needed to completely stabilize the Turkish Market & Regulations till the possible next elections in 2025.
• “Chaotic Parliament” scenario may come with extra baggage like minor security threats and relative instabilities within Turkey.

Muhammet Ali ZURNACI,  senior analyst of MAZ CORPORATE

“ THE RISKS THAT MAY STEM FROM ERDOGAN MAY SEEM MORE CALCULABLE TO WESTERN POWER BROKERS THAN THE ONES THAT MAY STEM FROM KILICDAROGLU.” The Central Left of Turkey has historically been harder to negotiate.. He has a sensational tweet to EU leaders “Türkiye First..” addressing the Syrian refugees.. On the other hand Türkiye needs EU funds anyway and anyhow.

Risk 1. Political Chaos and one more Election in late May or in June 2023. This scenario deepens the probable chaotic atmosphere into a totally unknown area of investment and is not “desired” by any foreign capital. Risk 2. Political Chaos in the Parliament until 2025 is one another “Not Desired” scenario.

MAZ Corporate: Despite the years of opposing Erdogan, now both the EU and the US may see him as “the lesser evil.”

It is quickly understood that Global Media has been handling “The Erdogan” not as negatively as in the past. Instead, Choices of political analysis seem focused on Economic problems and probability of Erdogan’s win. “Content and Discourse in Editorial Choices” is like “If Erdogan wins, this will happen” but there is no clear support of Kılıçdaroğlu. That may mean a silent support for Erdogan. This time I can not see Anti-Erdoğan campaign in the western outlets as powerful as in the past elections. This may be pointing that Turkish-American or let say (Erdogan-America) relations might be ok through backdoor diplomacy. The U.S may be dancing with Erdogan at the backstage while keeping in touch a little less with the Opposition.

Russian trump of grain corridor shows that there is an unsolved issue between Erdogan-Putin. Russia’s “tourist card” towards Turkey will be closely watched.  On the other hand, the Opposition’s policy choice towards refugees must be fearing them. Kılıçdaroğlu and the possibility of not systemic change from presidential to parliamentary is high enough. Second Round Scenarios, and Kılıcdaroğlu’s presidential lifespan is another big risky scenario.

It seems almost impossible for any election result to solve Turkey’s economic problems in the short term. So, it should be emphasized that the capital is not likely to take great risks in terms of foreign investors. Expecting dramatic recovery in the Turkish economy in the short run makes no sense.

MAZ Corporate endnotes that 

 “ Turkey, without reconciliation in power sharing both in the Eastern Mediterranean & Aegean (possible future Arab+Israeli+Greek counter-alliances and sensational escalations), without solving the YPG problem in Syria which it sees as an existential threat to itself, can not get relaxed enough. While the Ukraine crisis continues, the Middle East is in a seasonal de-escalation, Refugee crisis interestingly continues and the Taiwan Crisis has started to be calculated all over the globe together with its all other sub repercussions everywhere, It is hard to see Türkiye as a completely safe investment port. That might be the main reason why analysts from Turkey’s West are sending interestingly mixed signals this time regarding Turkish “Elections and Erdogan.”

Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign song is like a hopeful tweeting bird “Promise You, Spring Will Come..”

We all are in the Spring already and living in the beautiful weather here in Istanbul.

The question is How and How Long will it last?

Muhammet Ali Zurnaci 

April 26, 2023, Istanbul

MAZ Corporate