MAZ Corporate Artifical Scenarios on Turkey Election
Thank God, an important part of MAZ 2022 October Foresight has come true. Cacophony is now alive in Turkish Politics. Opposition block ‘Millet Alliance’ decided on her joint candidate yesterday: Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu who has the largest vote share in the block. However, Meral Akşener, who has the second-largest share in the alliance, looks unhappy with the result despite her support for Kılıçdaroğlu.
Behaviorally in, psycho-visually out of tune…
Why do I call it ‘A perfect cacophony’?
Expectation October 2022 was based on three foundations:
Turkish people anthropologically like consuming speedy and hot political agendas. They love politics. Still less than Iranians and lesser than Afghans.
Middle and upper-middle-class capital owners have indecisive behaviors in supporting opposition parties.
Turkey’s outer environment and her shrinking range of motion outside had already guaranteed a cacophonic internal power struggle.
Why will Turkey’s Internal Politics keep her cacophony?
Over Fragmentation in the Power Game makes the sound out of tune. That is why it is 100% likely to get more cacophonic till the election day (May 14, 2023) So we will highly likely watch some shocking events, interesting political shows, agitating news, screaming TV channels, quick counter-alliances, fights, MPs jumping into opposition, romanticism, cries, poems and all these sauces that make the politics delicious for Turkish people.
Is there no possibility of a calm election period for Turkey?
Of course, there is. Turkey urgently needs a big amount of hot money. Saudi Arabia today declared that she sent $5 billion to the Turkish Central Bank. Financial Desperation may calm the political agenda. Moreover, Turkey’s upper-class capital owners may use their influence over political leaders, including Erdoğan. However, one needs to forget what Erdogan has done in 20 years of his relative Empire?
Managing the escalated political crisis.
His way has actually been so simple. So simple that the Turkish opposition couldn’t comprehend perfectly until now. According to MAZ Corporate Observation, the Technique was like this:
- Escalate the crisis with agitating narratives,
- Rule it by calming the escalation
- Keep it under control.
- Stay in touch with all sides of Turkish Power Brokers.
If it is not going to be a calm and easy election campaign between Erdogan and Kılıcdaroglu, then we should have scenarios on possible political games ahead.
MAZ Corporate Artificial Scenarios:
- No more Alliance-Counter Alliance games occur. Millet Alliance Simply Wins after a calm and stable campaign period, and Kılıçdaroğlu becomes the next leader of Türkiye.
- Millet Alliance is divided. Aksener’s IYI changes her stance towards Cumhur Alliance by supporting Bahçeli’s MHP to bring Erdogan to power again and again and again. Even till the end of time. I call it “Kurt Yuvaya Döndü” Scenario implying Aksener’s political past is MHP originated.
- Cumhur Alliance is suddenly and shockingly divided. Power game turns upside down. A portion of dividends joins Babacan’s DEVA, another portion joins Karamollaoğlu’s Saadet. Bahçeli’s MHP dividends join Aksener’s IYI. In this scenario, specific weights of Millet Alliance completely change. So, Kılıcdaroğlu cannot hold his place anymore. Aksener becomes President, Babacan takes the chair of Vice President or vice versa.
- Erdogan himself divides his own party AKP into pieces. Particulars come together to break the Millet Alliance. Saadet, Gelecek, and Demokrat join Erdogan’s new game and HDP engages with Erdogan. Then Erdogan wins.
- HDP joins Millet Alliance to make the block far more powerful against Erdogan; however, because Aksener’s IYI is ontologically against HDP, she leaves the block and joins Cumhur Alliance to bring the powerful Erdogan to a powerful position.
- An extraordinary security threat from Syria or Greece can agitate the election campaign. On the other hand, Internal security issues such as terrorist attacks, sabotages, or assassinations may easily securitize the people’s emotions. If it happens, Erdogan easily wins.
What is MAZ Corporate’s end-scenario?
This time the election may not just change the leaders but also Turkish political systems. Erdogan is doing his best for some time to get better with the EU and the USA. His political decisions regarding Russia have made him simply less powerful. His lithe foreign policy choices backfired with heavy economic costs. He is old enough, looks tired and ill. Whoever wins the election Turkey has a lot to do on strategic relations with the Western World.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s poem from Turkish Mystic Yunus Emre was implying the importance of unity in the block. After the poem, he sent clear messages to the Western World about his view of Parliamentary systems. HDP + Millet Alliance would delete Mr Erdogan from Turkish political scenes. Whoever joins or leaves the alliances, Türkiye as a middle power actor in her region is being naturally forced to step back from her political progress.
Whoever wins, cannot develop a relationship with the West as tense as Erdogan. Whoever wins, has to continue from where Erdogan was trying to fix.
What is your expectation for gods sake?
- If not 3…”
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci,
March 7, 2023, Istanbul