Clashing Visions
MUHAMMET ALİ ZURNACI
It is becoming clear that clashing visions of counter-strategy cause limitations for PEK in three main areas: – Behavior, – Alliance Building, – Planning. This paves the way for evident conditions. In this regard, MAZ Vision reads the region’s critical spots as below:
Environmental Conditioning is likely to force the PEK to make quick decisions.
Türkiye— is in over diplomatic activity, searching for areas of maneuver despite feeling cornered more each day by hyperactive counter-diplomatic moves of other regional middle powers trying to influence regional and subregional functions. She is still hesitant about cross-border operations (land+maritime) due to possible extravagant economic sanctions and must be calculating the potential financial results of any hard power projection a few months before the election.
Russia— falls into another over-diplomacy phase, looking for an area to rebuild the weakening economy that has faced burning costs of using hard power for the invasion of Ukraine. Highly likely for her to lose more and more gradual power after the possible forthcoming prestige operations in Ukraine.
Iran— feels tired enough because of internal unrests, never-ending nuclear negotiations, and sanctions on her China-centric and oily economy model, which is likely to keep going through more and more depressive structural problems. She doesn’t even feel powerful enough to activate her power resources in the Gulf. Needs material therapy spread over time as much as other regional barons.
All – shaking and fluid agenda settings over media
- signaling winds of political change
- capital owners’ over-fragmented party-politics
- too many political parties with differing social sensations.
Look indecisive about whether they need “money” or “land and sea.
Happy February.
MAZ Visions
Trial Release
January 24, 2023