MUHAMMET ALI ZURNACI
At a time when the US decision-makers discuss whether MiG-29 fighter jets should be sent to Ukraine through Poland, the entrepreneurial effort of Turkey for mediation is stillborn. The international agenda is arguing two critical hot spots:
1- Will escalating sanctions stop Russia?
2- Will MiG-29s be sent to Ukraine?
Even these highly military and economic agenda lines may not be the game-changers. So it is not hard to understand the role of Cavusoglu is almost nothing but a diplomatic noise related to entrepreneurial effort.
My instincts tell me that today’s diplomatic effort may be the last positive one between Russia and Turkey.
Why so? Gas prices are rising and likely to keep the trend.
Idlib is locked.
Caucasia is getting hotter.
The whole Eastern Europe will shake.
Turkic Republics will look more influenced by Russia.
The Black Sea is the next crisis.
We are watching an actor flexing his muscles and paying whatever the price is.
At the same time, the US and the EU are helplessly watching the same actor and thinking of the most cost-effective solution.
Turkey’s Foreign Policy Tradition is simply balancing because of its natural environment. However, global developments, harsh power competitions, multiplying actors, overt and covert ambitions of regional powers including flexing Russia, force the Turkish tradition to play within a shrinking range of motion.
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
March 10, 2022