Do “Geo Political Oppression” or a “Threat Perception” lead to hard moves in times of Economic Contraction?
Türkiye
1- Perception: Geo Politically oppressed day by day. (Syria, Greece, Aegean, Black Sea, Caucasia, Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa)
1.1 – Increasingly Complex Regionalization or Regional Alliance Building. (Limited and Recovering economies searching for new markets+International Sanctions)
1.2 – Karabakh, Libya, Idlib, Warming Aegean, Black Sea of Potential Ambiguity, forced to be excluded from Eastern Mediterranean geoeconomics or to play at the lowest level.
1.3 – Most of them are deeply related with Russia, the new aggressor of the region with a relatively oppressed economy.
2- Economic Contraction can either discourage or encourage hard moves depending on the situation. Overall delay in hardness is likely. Abrasive Inflation + Devaluation + Current Deficit + Serious Decline in Growth
2.1 – Any little regional opportunity would be used as a leverage
2.1.1 – And this means hard bargains in each single competition
3- Potential Internal Unrest: Migrants/Refugees and Growing Mafia (More than 4 million Syrians, Afghans + Mafia Wars)
3.1 – Both of them/already become the major functions of the upcoming election
3.2 – No clear future projection for these blurring problems in the short/middle terms.
3.3 – Growing Mafia problem is related to Eco-Political Instabilization and Judicial Vulnerability.
4- Unemployment is rising dramatically: Educated population is currently trending towards emigration from the country creating an extremely risky multiplier effect for the first three headlines.
What does MAZ Consultancy predict for Türkiye?
Limited but decisive hard moves (including in the Aegean) as has been the case since the 70s.
As long as she does not switch to a ‘war economy’, it is very likely for her to play ‘one step back and one step further’ to feel economically alive. The cost of power projection continues to be limiting
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı,
July 16, 2022
Istanbul
MAZ Research Paper Series
Trial Release
July 16, 2022